Packers at Bears Review, Falcons at Vikings Preview

Packers Edge the Bears 10-3 in NFL Season Opener at Soldier Field

The NFL’s 100^th season kicked off with the historic rivalry between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. It sounds better than in looked. Last night’s game came up well short of ‘must see TV’. The game was low scoring, and it was close from beginning to end. Former Bear, now Packer, Adrian Amos sealed the game with an interception in the end zone against his former team. It was a sloppy game by both sides, so I want to touch on it before I get into the Vikings and Falcons preview.

Packers' Adrian Amos Intercepts Mitch Trubisky to seal the Bears fate at Soldier Field. Photo Credit John J. Kim of the Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service 

Last night we saw the importance of starters getting playing time in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers didn’t take a single snap in the preseason. Mitch Trubisky took 3 snaps in the preseason and handed the ball off on all 3 of those plays. Neither quarterback played up their full potential last night. A couple good throws here, a couple there, but both QBs were knocking the rust off all night. This looked and felt like a 5^th preseason game. The only difference is that this one will impact the W-L column. I don’t love the preseason approach of sitting starters all preseason. Young players like Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky could use the extra reps against different opponents to be ready for the regular season.

Both defenses looked good, but not great yesterday. Bears and Packers fans have a lot to be optimistic about in terms of their defenses this year. The Bears had the #1 defense last year, and they returned 10 of 11 starters. The Packers added in key positions through free agency and the draft. The low score might lead us to believe the defenses played well, but in reality both quarterbacks and offenses looked rusty. We didn’t learn much about how either team will look this year, and we won’t until at least week two.

Jimmy Graham Celebrates after scoring the game's only touchdown. Photo Credit Charles Rex Arbogast Chicago (AP)

My takeaways: The Bears may have found a kicker. I know, I know, it was only 1 kick from 38 yards, but Eddy Pineiro is 1 for 1. You could feel the sigh of relief at Soldier Field when that ball went through the uprights. It’s only 1 kick, but it’s a big step to heal the wounds left from the ‘double-doink’. Jimmy Graham will be Aaron Rodger’s 2^nd favorite target this year. Graham came up with 3 big catches yesterday and he’s gaining AR12’s trust. An early touchdown will have Aaron looking Jimmy’s way in key moments this year. Bears’ defense will regress this year. You can’t stay number 1 forever, unless you’re the Patriots. We saw a little bit of that last night. They played pretty tentative last night, we’ll see if that changes next week. Packers offense will quickly feel the effect of Aaron’s huge contract. The offensive line has been a strong point of the Packers’ offense for years, and it looked mediocre at best last night. The money AR12 got will take directly away from the offensive line. On the flip side, we saw Green Bay spend a lot of the remaining money on the defense in free agency.

Atlanta Falcons Take On The Minnesota Vikings At U.S. Bank Stadium, Full Game Preview

Sunday’s game at U.S. Bank Stadium will feature 2 teams that are primed for big seasons. Offensively, both sides are loaded with weapons. The key to both these offensive units are the healthy running backs. Devonta Freeman and Dalvin Cook are both extremely dangerous with the ball in their hands and are great pass catchers out of the backfield. I will breakdown 3 things to watch for on Sunday, including 2 key matchups, and then get to my prediction. It’s a long one, so buckle up.

#1 – Match up: Dalvin Cook versus Atlanta’s front 7.

Mike Zimmer made it very clear what he wanted from the offense this year, more balance in the run game. To do so, the offensive line needed help, specifically from the interior linemen. The Vikings organization gave Zimmer everything they could by drafting Center Garrett Bradbury in the first round and Tight End Irv Smith Jr. in the second round. The Vikings solidified the interior line by moving former center Pat Elflein to left guard (a position he played very successfully in college at Ohio State) and bringing in former Titans right guard Josh Kline during free agency.

The Vikings rushing attack led by Dalvin Cook will be key to controlling the time of possession  Photo Credit Brace Hemmelgarn - USA TODAY  

The key acquisition, and I will cover this in depth later, is offensive assistant Gary Kubiak. Kubiak is an excellent football mind and has had a very successful coaching career. He has coached for 4 super bowl champion teams (1 as quarterbacks coach in San Francisco, 2 as an offensive coordinator in Denver and 1 as a head coach in a later stint with Denver). The Falcons know all this, so look for them to load the box with 7-8 defenders to combat the run. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has put together a strong, fast defense, led by an excellent core of linebackers. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings offense struggles to get first downs early. They have committed to running the ball more. If they stay completely fixated on the run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons dominate the first half time of possession. This will force the Vikings to lean on the $86 million arm of Kirk Cousins to lead a comeback in the second half. That said, I expect Dalvin Cook and the offensive line to get going early with help from Diggs and Thielen in the pass game. If that happens, look out. Vikings will get out to an early lead and control the game with ease.

#2 – Match up: Atlanta’s WR core versus Minnesota’s CB core.

Xavier Rhodes has gotten the best of Julio Jones, limiting him to 13 receptions, 162 yards, and no touchdowns through 3 match ups. Photo Credit Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire

This match up will be very interesting and will dictate how successful the Falcons offense will be. Assuming Julio Jones will play on Sunday (which he may not due to contract negotiation), Xavier Rhodes will shadow Julio around the field. He’s done this in the previous 3 match ups between the two pro-bowl players, no reason to switch that now. The Rhodes will be closed in this match up; Xavier seems to have Julio’s number. Rhodes does an excellent job knowing his opponent’s tendencies, particularly Jones. If you haven’t seen Rhodes’s Game Pass Film Session, I would highly encourage you to watch it ahead of Sunday’s game. He talks about shadowing top receivers, diagnosing offenses pre-snap, and how Rhodes can read his receiver’s (like Julio’s) body language to know when the ball is coming his way. It’s fascinating. The key to Atlanta’s WR core versus Minnesota’s CB core will be wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu versus cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander. Ridley had an excellent rookie season last year and is primed for an even bigger sophomore season. Sanu is a proven 2^nd target for Matt Ryan. He has great hands and runs good routes. If Rhodes locks down Julio, look for most of the targets going to Ridley and Sanu. Trae Waynes is set for a big year in 2019. With exception of a couple plays, Waynes had an excellent year in 2018 as he is playing for a contract in 2020 this year. I expect him to play well, covering opposite side of Rhodes on Sunday.

Mackensie Alexander is primed for a breakout season. Look for him in nickle packages on 3rd down and long. In these situations, he does an excellent job coming on a corner blitz. Photo Credit Brad Rempel USA TODAY 

HOT TAKE, look for Mackensie Alexander to burst onto the scene in 2019. Head coach Mike Zimmer, the defensive back guru, has praised Alexander’s skill set and work ethic for a long time. We saw flashes of it in limited playing time in the 2018 season. I expect Alexander to have a much bigger role this year. He’s a good nickel corner and he’s awesome when he gets to blitz. Zimmer loves to use him in exotic blitz packages, especially with Pro-Bowl linebacker Anthony Barr. Look for Alexander to ball-out this year. Safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris will provide the corners with extra help over the top. This allows the corners to play very tight man coverage, likely pressing receivers at the line of scrimmage. This gives more time for the defensive line to get to Matt Ryan, and allows corners to blitz right off the line of scrimmage. Minnesota will play a lot of cover 1 and cover 2 defense on 1^st and 2^nd down. On 3^rd and long, Zimmer loves to send exotic zone blitzes, so look out for that Barr/Alexander combo a couple times. I think Minnesota has a slight edge in this match up. Minnesota will rely on the cornerback group to bare a heavy load this game.

#3 – Tendencies: Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak’s new look offense.

Kevin Stefanski (Left) and Gary Kubiak (Right) have an offensive group with talent at every position. They will be challenged to put together a run-balanced scheme to get the most of their players.

New look? What’s new? There’s been a lot of whispers around the league about what the new look Vikings offense can be this year. So what does that mean? Offensive assistant Gary Kubiak was hired on this off season to help first time offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski run the offensive unit. Kubiak has a history of success in the NFL. What will look different under Stefanski and Kubiak? Kubiak is an offensive minded coach that has had a great history of successful rushing attacks. He specializes in a run first, zone blocking scheme. That means, you’ll see a lot of 2 tight end formations, more usage of the fullback CJ Ham, and more offensive linemen pulling from the weak side over to the strong side to block downfield (or vice versa). The idea of the zone blocking scheme is finding creatives ways to move big blockers out in front of the running backs. This gets big offensive bodies running in the direction that the play is headed, blocking linebackers, and getting running backs into the second level of the opposing defense. Not only is it an effective way to run the ball, but it wears down opposing defensive fronts early. The Vikings have built a fast, athletic offensive line that’s on the smaller size. They can quickly maneuver the field and manipulate blocking schemes, creating better holes for the running back. This scheme creates huge opportunities with the play-action pass. I expect the Vikings offensive identity to change quite a bit this year. Minnesota will run very effectively in early downs and wear out defensive fronts. Worn out defensive fronts don’t rush the passer well. This gives Cousins more time to survey the field, and receivers will have more time to get open down field. That means big plays for Diggs and Thielen.

If Stefanski and Kubiak can get the offense to click more consistently this year, we'll get to see a whole lot more of this in the end zone.

In an ideal world, our offense then becomes a successful rushing attack with big threat potential down field. A deadly combo. This will be OC Kevin Stefanski’s first full season calling plays, so we likely won’t see it run to perfection at U.S. Bank Stadium versus the Falcons this Sunday, or even in Green Bay next week. If the offense stays healthy, don’t be surprised to see a top 5 offense this year.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Falcons 17. Vikings will need to rely on their offensive play makers this week. I think the defense will start out fast and aggressive in front of the home crowd. If the Vikings offense starts strong, like they frequently do at home, it will make for a fun chess match that favors the purple and gold on Sunday.